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Heavy Rain Possible Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday


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Posted by: Staff
Date: Sep 04 2024 7:52 AM

A multi-day heavy rainfall event is coming up on Thursday, Friday, and possibly extending into Saturday. The heaviest rainfall amounts are forecast near the Panhandle coast. 


I-10 northward:


2 to 3 inches of rain will be common. A few pockets could get high-end totals of 4 to 6 inches. 


For many areas that are now experiencing drought, this will be a very beneficial rain. Where the high-end totals materialize too quickly, then isolated flash flooding is possible. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall, with the Marginal Risk covering the greatest area on Friday.


Rises on area rivers are expected this weekend, but rivers are very likely to stay within their banks and not flood.


South of I-10:


3 to 5 inches of rain will be common. A few pockets could get high-end totals of 6 to 8+ inches. A few places along the Panhandle coast are most in line for the high-end totals.


Given the dry conditions, initial rounds of rain through Thursday limit flash flooding to isolated instances at most. However as repeated rounds of heavy rain occur and the soil moistens by Friday, then scattered flash flooding could occur in places where those high-end totals materialize too quickly. On Friday, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall, generally south of I-10 and west of Tallahassee.


Coastal rivers are starting off quite low and are less prone to flooding than usual. Still, the forecast rainfall will cause rises on coastal rivers.  To get flooding on coastal rivers, it would take over 6 inches of rainfall across a basin. While there is a non-zero chance of that happening, rivers are much more likely to remain within their banks.


Graphics:


1)  The "Forecast Rainfall", or QPF, graphic shows the most likely multi-day rainfall amounts from today through Saturday.  It does not show the high-end possibilities mentioned above.


2)  The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Friday is included.  This is the day with the greatest and most widespread risk coverage. Additional days' EROs can be viewed at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero


 



Heavy Rain Possible Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday

Heavy Rain Possible Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday


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