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Thanksgiving Severe Weather Outlook
Viewed: 1556
Posted by: Staff
Date: Nov 26 2024 8:08 AM
A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4, attached) for severe weather was introduced to nearly the entire Tri-State Area for Thanksgiving November 28th in the SPC Day 3 Outlook - valid 7AM EST Thursday to 7AM EST Friday. The main threats appear to be isolated damaging gusts. Timing is during the afternoon and evening hours.
Overview:
A cold front is forecast to move through the region on Thanksgiving and be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. The environment is expected to be favorable for semi-organized bands of convection capable of strong to damaging wind gusts. The main factors on severe weather potential are instability and the timing of the front. A faster outcome yields lesser instability, while a slower evolution fosters better instability.
Given the uncertainty, a broad Marginal Risk is currently in place - corresponds to a 5-14% probability (attached) of severe weather within 25 miles of a point inside the risk area. Subsequent Outlooks (Day 2 or earlier) will depict more targeted probabilities of the wind, tornado, and hail hazards.
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