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Thanksgiving Severe Weather Outlook
Viewed: 1384
Posted by: Staff
Date: Nov 27 2024 10:12 AM
- Adjusted timing to the morning and afternoon hours.
- Probabilities of individual severe hazards are now known.
Bottom Line:
A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5, attached) for severe weather remains in place for the entire Tri-State Area for Thanksgiving November 28th in the SPC Day 2 Outlook - valid 7AM EST Thursday to 7AM EST Friday. The main threats are isolated damaging gusts and hail. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out. Timing is during the morning and afternoon hours.
Overview:
A cold front (attached) is forecast to move through the region on Thanksgiving and be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Storm clusters are likely to overspread parts of the FL Panhandle into Southwest GA early tomorrow morning ahead of the front. Trailing convective bands then move eastward from Northern GA/AL down to the I-10 corridor in the afternoon. Weather should improve in the evening.
The environment is expected to be favorable for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out either, but chances are lower compared to the other two severe hazards. The Marginal Risk mostly corresponds to a 5-14% probability of isolated damaging gusts and/or hail within 25 miles of a point inside the risk area. Trends will be monitored closely as we draw near to see if any further adjustments are necessary in subsequent outlooks.
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