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The National Weather Service Tropical Weather Outlook


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Posted by: Staff
Date: Aug 01 2024 11:34 AM

Since yesterday morning, there has been a westward shift into more of the eastern Gulf for possible development of a tropical depression this weekend or early next week. If development occurs, this shift in the development area would increase the chance of seeing tropical impacts in our service area.


2 AM ET Tropical Weather Outlook:



A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of

the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater

Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Additional Information:



One scenario to watch closely is the possibility of getting a slow-moving, stalling, or meandering tropical cyclone in the eastern Gulf that hangs out nearby for a few days during the first half of next week. This outcome could bring extremely heavy multi-day rainfall totals to an unlucky portion of the northeast Gulf Coast. In addition to the common message of advising the public to check their hurricane preparedness plans, we are also advising that folks consider their vulnerability to flooding.



Impacts could begin as soon as Sunday PM.



The National Weather Service Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Weather Service Tropical Weather Outlook


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